????:1???????????:??????????

2????????

3???????

4???????

5?300??????

???6??14?????? (?????? ?????????????)???????????«????????-??»????,????,????????????

??????????,??????????2.1??,???,?????

???????,?????????????????????????1989??????????11??????????????????,??(?Dan Guravich,????)?????????????/???????????????

?????,?????,?,?????1700????????????????????,???,????????????????????????????,??,???,??????

????????????30??????????,??????????1????????,??120?????????150???????????????????????????????????????,??????????

???????????(????Erinn Hermsen,??????????????????????????????)?????????????????/???????

??,????????????????????Julienne Stroeve?????????????????,????IPCC????????(CMIP6)????,??,????????

??183?218???????????,???2.1?????????????????2.6?,?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????,???????,?,?????,????????????????????11????????????????????1????????

Julienne Stroeve??????? MOSAiC?????(??Lars Barthel)???????/????????????????????

???,???????????????2????????????,??????????????????(?)

????:????????????????