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??,????????????????????1989??11???????,???(??????????Dan Guravich,????)????????/?????????????

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?????????30????????????,?1????,?????????120?????150???????????????????????,???????????

???????????????(??????????????????????Erinn Hermsen,?????????????)??????????????/???????

?????,?????????????????????Julienne Stroeve?????,??IPCC?(CMIP6)??,????,?????????????????????

????????183??????????218????????,??2.1??2.6????????,???????????????????????????????????,??????????????????????????????????,??????,???????????,?11?????????????????1???????????????????????????????????

Julienne Stroeve?? MOSAiC??????????????????(???????Lars Barthel)???????????/?????????????

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