????:1??????:????100????

2???spa???????

3???????

4?????300????

5??????????

????????6??14?? (????????? ???????)???????????«???????-????????»??,??????????????????,?????

??,?????2.1????????????????????,???????????????,????????

????,??????1989?????????????11????????,??????????????(????Dan Guravich,????)????????????????????????/?????????????

????,?,??????????????????????????????,?1700????????????????,????????????,??????????????????????,???,??????????,???

????????????????????30??,????????1??????????,???120????????????150????????????????????????,???

??????????????????????????????????(?????Erinn Hermsen,?)?????????????/???????????????

?????,?????????????????????????????Julienne Stroeve??????????????????????????????????,???????????????IPCC??(CMIP6)?????,????,???????

????183??????????218??????????????,??2.1???????????????2.6???????,????????,???????????,???????,??????????,???11???1?????????????????????

Julienne Stroeve????????? MOSAiC??????????(????Lars Barthel)?????????????????????????/????

???????,?2???,????(?)

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