????:1???????:qq?????????

2???????????

3??????

4???????

5?????????

???,??????????????????6?????????????,????,???????????????????????????????????????,???????????VAR(???????????)???????????????,?????,??????????????,?????“??????????????????”??

??????????????????????“??????????????”

??????????????????,????????,???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????,???????????????????,?85?,????33????????

??????????????2022??????????????,??????????????,???????????????????“???”?,2018???????????2022??????????????????????,?????,??,???9?????????????10????

??????????10????,?14????2024?????????,????,“?????????????”?????????????????0??????1???????????,??????????VAR??????,???????????????,?????????????,????,??????????“??????????”,??????????????????

????2?????0??????,?????????,????????????????,????????????,??????????????????,??????????????

???????????????

?????,?????????????“???”???,?????????????????,???????,???;???????,????????

?????2??????0?????????????????????,????,??,??????,???????????,??????????????????,????,“??????????”?????????????????,?,???????

?????????????“????????????”?????????,??;???????????????,???“??????????????????”?????,???????????????????,?????????????????????????2018???????????1/4??2???????????????1?????????,???????,??????????????????2018????????????????????,??

??????????,??????????:“?????,??????????????,?????????????????????????????,???????”

? ??????????????????????? ?????????????????:???????