????:1??????????:????????

2????????

3???200????

4????????vx

5?????????

?????????????/???????

??????????G7?????????????“????????????”?

???6????5?????????,???????????(?)???????????????25???????,??5%???????4.75%???2020???????????????????????3??????,???????????G7??????

??,???????????????????????,?????????????????????????????,??????????????“?????????6???”?????????????????

????????????????????????,?

????,???????????,??????????????,?????2%????????????????????

???????????,??12??????4???,???????(CPI)???????????3.4%??2.7%,????????????????3.5%????????????????2.75%,3??????????3.5%?????????2%????????????????CPI??????????????????3%?????????????????

??,???????CPI???

????????(Kristina Hooper)??????????????,??????????,????????CPI???????????????0.1%,??,??6???

?????????????????

?????,?6?????

????????,????,????,“???”6??????,???????????????

?????????????????,?????????????5??????????????????????31?,???????????????????5????????????2.6%,?4??????????????2.4%,?????2.5%;???????????????????????2.9%?

???,?????????????,???????,???????????????,??????????????????????????,??????

?????????,6?????

??????????????????,4???CPI?????????????????????????,??????,??5?????,???“??????,??????????”

?????,??,?????????????????5??????,??

??(CME)???????FedWatch?????,????9?????70%,???????????????,??

????????,?????????????????????????2024???????????(??????????11????????12??????????????????),?????1????2??(1???????????????),???????25?????????????????50???????,??“?????”,????????75???100???????????????????“???????????”,?????????????100????????????????200????????

??????????????????

???????????????????,??,???????,??

???????,?????????????,????????????????,??????????????????????????,???????????????,??

????,?????????????,??????,??,??,??????????????????6??,?????????????????8?????

“???”????????????,????????????????,????,????,????“???????????????????????,?????????????????????,???????????????????2024????”

???????????????????,????????????????(????????????),????????? ????:???????????????