????:1????????????:????????????

2?????800

3???????

4???????

5????????

?? ?????:???????

??????????????????????MLF??,???????????????LPR??

6????17?????????,?????????(MLF)???????????,????????,???????,??????????7?????10?????????30????4??????“?”???????,????????????????????,30????????????????????????(230023)??17????????????????2.5085,?????0.35BP?????????????,????????2??28???????????,30???2.5%,???MLF?????????????????,??,??2.4%??????????,??????????????????2.58%????,????2.5%?

????,?????????????????????????“????????????????”??????,???,???????????????????????,???

????

???????????????,???????????,???????MLF???????????,????????6???????????????

???,??????????“?,?????????????????????????????,?,?,???2024??????????(?????????9???)??,???,?????????????????????,?,????”

??,??,????????????20?????(LPR)???????????,????5???????????????????LPR,?????????

??,5????2.06????????,????????????2024?????????????????????????1~5?????????????,???????????9000??????????,??????1??;???????? 3500????????????;????????????????????1?,?“???????????”????????,????

??????????????,?220BP,?????7.2??????,??1000??,??????????????????,???????????????????

??(Tommy Wu)?????????,???????????,???????7.11?????4???7.0950????,??????????,?????,?????????,???????,???,?????????

??,??????????5??CPI?????????????3.4%??????????3.3%(?????????0),??????????CPI??????????????3.6%?3.4%,???,??????????CPI???

??????????,6??13????,9?????????????????????56%???1?,????2?????????,??????????????????25BP???

??????????????????,?????????????????????????????,??????,???????????????MLF??????,???,LPR???????????????????????10~20BP?

??????????

??????6????17???????,10?(240004)???2.289,?????0.6BP,4?????????????????????????2.35;30?????????2.5075,?????????0.35BP,4??2.58?

??,?????????????????????????,????????????????????,???????,?????????30????????,????30??ETF??3?????????115????,????,??????????????111~112????,????

????,10??2.2%,30??????????????2.5%????????????????????????,???,?????“????2.5%~3%”????“10??????????????2.5%~3.0%”;???“???????????????????????????”“??”??“5%??”;???“????????,??????????”????“???”?

????,??????,??????????????????????????,???????????

????,??????????????5????????????????,???????

?????????????, 5??????,5?????????CPI?????????0.3%,???????????????,??,???????,?????????????????5??PPI??-1.4%,?-2.5%,?????????????????,??????????????????????? ?????????????;????????????????

???,????????????????????,?????????????,6?????????????30???????????????42%,??;????????,????????????,6???????????????????????????????????,???????

????????,???????????????,??????,??????,????

??????????,?????????????,?????????????,???????????????????50????20???,?????????????????,?????????,?????????????,??????????,???????????

“????????????????????????????????????????,?????????????????3??????????,??,????????????????????,10????????????????2.25%~2.35%?”????????? ?????:???