??????:??????????????????????

????:??????????:????????????

????6?????????????14?????????????????? (??????? ??????????)???????????«?????-??»?,????,?????

?????????????,????2.1???????,??????,?????

??,????????????????????????1989??????????11???????????,???????(????????????Dan Guravich,?????)??????????????????????????????/??????????

???,????,?????????????????,??????1700????????????????????,??????,?????????????????,????????,??????????????????????????????????,???????????????

?????????????30???,??1??,???120??150????????????????,???

???????????????(??????????Erinn Hermsen,?????????)??????????/???????????????

??,??????????????????Julienne Stroeve???????,???????????IPCC?????????????????(CMIP6)????????,????????????????????,????????

????????????183?????????????????218?????????????????????????????????,??????????2.1?2.6???,??????????????????????????????????????????????,?,?????????,???,???????11?1??????

Julienne Stroeve?? MOSAiC??(??Lars Barthel)?????????????/????????????????????

?,????2????,???(????????)

??????????:???