????:1??????????:??????wx

2?????9598????

3????????????

4???????150??

5??????????

??? ??????????:??????????

??????????????MLF?????,??????????LPR???

6??17?,????(MLF)????????,????????????????????????????????????,??????,???7?????10????????????30????4????????????????????????“????”???????????,??????????,30??????(230023)??????17???2.5085,??0.35BP???,??????????2???28???,30?????????????2.5%,???MLF??,???????,??2.4%?????????????????????????,????2.58%???????????,???2.5%?

???????????,???????????????????“?????”???,??,????????,????????

???????????

??????????????????,????????,???????MLF???????????????????????????,????6???????????????

??????????,?????????????“?,????????????????????????????,?????????,??,??2024????????(????????9??)??,??????????,????????????????????,??,??????”

??,??,???????????????20?????????????????????????(LPR)????????????????,????5???????LPR,?????????

???,5?2.06??,??????????????????????????????????2024??1~5?????????????????,??9000??????????,??????????1?????????;???? 3500?;???????1?????????,???“???”????????,????

???,????????220BP,????????7.2???????????????,?1000????????????????,???????????????????????????????,???????

?????(Tommy Wu)????????????,??,???7.11??????????????????????4???????????7.0950?????,?????????,??????????????????????,???????????????????????,???,???????????????,??

???????????,???????????????????????5??????????CPI????????3.4%??3.3%(?0),?CPI??3.6%???3.4%,????????,???????????CPI????????????????

???????????????,6???13???????????????????,9?????????56%??????????????1??,????2??????????,???????25BP????

?????????,??????????????????????,???????????,??????????????MLF?,?,LPR???10~20BP?

????

??6????????17??,10???(240004)???2.289,????????????????????0.6BP,4?????2.35;30???2.5075,???0.35BP,4????????????????2.58?

??????????????,?????????,?,?,?????30??????????????,???30??????ETF?????????????3????????????????115??????,?,?????????????????111~112??????????????,???????????????

???,10????2.2%,30???????2.5%????????????,???????????????,???“????2.5%~3%”????“10??2.5%~3.0%”;?????????“??”“??”????????????????????“5%?????????”;????????“?,??????????”??“??????????????????”?

???,?????????????????,??????????,?????

????????,????????????5?????,??????????

?, 5????,5?CPI?????????0.3%,????,?????,?????????,?????5???????????????????????PPI?-1.4%,??-2.5%,?????????????????????????????,?????????? ?????????????????????;???????????????????????????????

????,????????????,?,6??30???????42%,??;?????????????????,?????????,6??????????????????????????????,????????

???????????????,??????????,?,???????,???????????

???,?????,?????????,?????????????50????????20????????????,?????????????,???????????,?????????????????????????,???????????????,???????????????????

“??????????????,????????????3?????,??????????,??????????????????????????????,10?????????2.25%~2.35%?”????? ?????????????????????:?????????